Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ecf4621f9e50b4b85a6da625f69bccbe88fa4ee1a019d52f277d4cd12c6bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inter Miami CFof Philadelphia Union, Inter Miami CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Philadelphia Union | 24c | 3,125$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Inter Miami CF | 76c | 2,886$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.52 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Union | 24c | 931.41$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Inter Miami CF | 79c | 657.98$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Inter Miami CF | 76c | 531.17$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Union | 8c | 466$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Union | 18c | 365.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Philadelphia Union | 17c | 333.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Union | 16c | 305.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2a…39bdbacked Inter Miami CF | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Union | 26c | 246.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Inter Miami CF | 80c | 153.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Philadelphia Union | 15c | 141.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Inter Miami CF | 73c | 116$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Philadelphia Union | 19c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…bd81backed Philadelphia Union | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Philadelphia Union | 21c | 84.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Inter Miami CF | 80c | 82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Philadelphia Union | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Philadelphia Union | 18c | 69.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Inter Miami CF | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Inter Miami CF | 77c | 51.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Inter Miami CF | 80c | 50.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Philadelphia Union | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Inter Miami CF | 79c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…05ccbacked Philadelphia Union | 39c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Inter Miami CF | 79c | 34.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d0efbacked Inter Miami CF | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Inter Miami CF | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Inter Miami CF | 77c | 26.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Inter Miami CF | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Inter Miami CF | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Inter Miami CF O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Inter Miami CF O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Inter Miami CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.