MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0a6025ffaf14f1db588830dc94aa47bbcc8e5d22180251c661d520c60889ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 14,055$8,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,905.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 7,957$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 5,134$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 4,085$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 1,066$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 888.06$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 787.19$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 764.24$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 534$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 439.83$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 379.51$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 248.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 176.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 153.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 136.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 105.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 104.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 96.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 94.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 76.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 65.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 62.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 59.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 57.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 52.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 51.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 50.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 38.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 34.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e34…7d7cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 27.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…55abbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.