WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4a2a4a020989f94104ee631eb6c4510271efb0306b4a612a197b96a82e4170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Skyof Las Vegas Aces, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky | 46c | 4,529$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.8 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 3,170$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.1 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 2,806$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.79 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky | 56c | 2,292$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.1 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 1,515$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.73 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 27c | 820.97$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 29c | 326$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 227.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 183.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Las Vegas Aces | 41c | 135.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 133.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Chicago Sky | 71c | 99.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Las Vegas Aces | 41c | 93.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 82.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Las Vegas Aces | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 58.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 45.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 38c | 34.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Chicago Sky | 61c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Chicago Sky | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Chicago Sky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.