WNBA · resolved market
Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa904022c3a6aee0ee18e88881a13b8392617a59cbb498e35e5d21fdae3c97487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,219$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.5 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 49c | 1,189$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.68 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 47c | 1,091$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 49c | 954.7$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 830.39$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.04 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 769.8$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.95 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 534.24$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…cfa1backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 390.52$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 207.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Under | 53c | 189.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 45c | 167.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 55c | 160.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 63c | 102$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 97.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 55c | 96.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 86.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 38c | 78.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 31c | 75.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Over | 45c | 65.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 58.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 53.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 54c | 47.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…c30abacked Under | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 46c | 36.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…d91bbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f96backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 50c | 29.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Chicago Sky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.