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WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky46c6,842$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,133.361,80351.8%934 W · 869 L+56.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Chicago Sky52c2,838$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.228148.8%137 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Las Vegas Aces48c2,818$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.841850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces57c2,243$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.752052.9%275 W · 245 L+19.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Las Vegas Aces42c2,125$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00013746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky49c1,891$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1185658.4%500 W · 356 L+70.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Las Vegas Aces49c1,679$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.7980348.7%391 W · 412 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Sky58c1,506$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.4239750.1%199 W · 198 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Chicago Sky51c1,327$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.113048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Las Vegas Aces50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5503959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Las Vegas Aces49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Chicago Sky52c923.08$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4802152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces63c792.32$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3223149.4%114 W · 117 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Las Vegas Aces57c545$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3515654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Las Vegas Aces58c450$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1893672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5a6…d556backed Chicago Sky43c431.94$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Las Vegas Aces47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21228140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Chicago Sky44c399.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.144645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Las Vegas Aces53c329.86$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.034369.8%30 W · 13 L+7.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Las Vegas Aces57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.163876.3%29 W · 9 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+40.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Las Vegas Aces56c236$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.848960.7%54 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Las Vegas Aces48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3312045%54 W · 66 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Las Vegas Aces48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1047546.7%35 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces59c183.68$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.681,63550.2%820 W · 815 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Chicago Sky53c181.13$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968536.5%31 W · 54 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed Chicago Sky58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Chicago Sky52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785442.6%23 W · 31 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Las Vegas Aces57c131.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.589460.6%57 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Chicago Sky54c128.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.319950.3%100 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Chicago Sky47c105.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4925846.9%121 W · 137 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Chicago Sky58c102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1617350.3%87 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Las Vegas Aces60c96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44663%29 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf2d…1100backed Chicago Sky53c92.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.051030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Las Vegas Aces57c77.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.543063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Las Vegas Aces40c76.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0835118.5%65 W · 286 L-49.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-57.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Las Vegas Aces57c75.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2712359.3%73 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Chicago Sky53c65.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2822440.2%90 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Las Vegas Aces48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.513648.5%66 W · 70 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Las Vegas Aces52c55.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.088640.7%35 W · 51 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Chicago Sky52c49.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.812258.2%71 W · 51 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7497…18cebacked Las Vegas Aces48c45.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.837040%28 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf8…5d40backed Las Vegas Aces57c44.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.011080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+42.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Las Vegas Aces56c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.923571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Las Vegas Aces64c40.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.636969.6%48 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c49…c6c2backed Chicago Sky50c40.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Sky47c40.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.885536.4%20 W · 35 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Las Vegas Aces69c36.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.263268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Las Vegas Aces57c36.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57470.3%52 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Las Vegas Aces49c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8528447.9%136 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Las Vegas Aces47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.967646.1%35 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Chicago Sky71c23.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.968758.6%51 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Chicago Sky49c23.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5314851.4%76 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Las Vegas Aces56c22.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.923770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Las Vegas Aces70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.545715.8%72 W · 385 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.