TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof BetBoom Team, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$287,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,045 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex61c37,916$23,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,906.8154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team40c23,358$9,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,366.455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Yandex60c23,133$13,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,206.3533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BetBoom Team36c15,393$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,542.5413020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked BetBoom Team37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,549.9836041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Yandex63c7,542$4,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.56349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Yandex71c7,114$5,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.4886949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Yandex60c5,540$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Yandex61c3,597$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.7696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team35c3,434$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BetBoom Team36c3,171$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.4851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked BetBoom Team39c3,143$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.1418746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex77c2,853$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.612,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed BetBoom Team45c2,652$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.44131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked BetBoom Team40c2,495$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99816945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked BetBoom Team35c2,400$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.7418362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Yandex65c2,377$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.6514443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Team Yandex60c2,341$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.3112851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked BetBoom Team39c2,329$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.346633.3%22 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BetBoom Team40c2,268$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.0125444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed Team Yandex63c2,251$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.163360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed BetBoom Team36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BetBoom Team39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78030336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Yandex60c1,875$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75073841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed BetBoom Team45c1,670$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9358744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BetBoom Team39c1,653$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.7860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team39c1,575$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.591,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Team Yandex65c1,530$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.3110743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BetBoom Team39c1,500$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed BetBoom Team39c1,437$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.755147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed BetBoom Team40c1,360$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54413045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Yandex74c1,346$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.297750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed BetBoom Team45c1,322$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Yandex62c1,301$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.8746649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed BetBoom Team40c1,252$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.6712638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1a…c345backed BetBoom Team40c1,232$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Team Yandex61c1,107$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0519162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BetBoom Team4c1,082$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.116132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked BetBoom Team45c1,075$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Yandex63c999.98$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9923650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team38c995.84$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.831,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked BetBoom Team46c994.9$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team36c989.58$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.31,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Yandex54c980.75$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.5736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Yandex61c962.3$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Yandex71c893.25$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5318075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team34c887.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.9288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Team Yandex56c886.09$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5412661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked BetBoom Team39c816.17$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.725251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Yandex65c780.42$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4220156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Yandex65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.232,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Team Yandex62c731.16$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.466566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex73c722.48$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BetBoom Team29c700$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed BetBoom Team2c698.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.913438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team41c668.66$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked BetBoom Team44c636.87$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8616550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed BetBoom Team41c623.61$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6815338.6%59 W · 94 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked BetBoom Team49c617.07$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Yandex50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30037047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team46c600$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed BetBoom Team39c552$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Team Yandex79c545.82$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9618745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e0…ac15backed BetBoom Team37c540$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.81369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7e4…2a20backed Team Yandex63c540$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Yandex59c536.11$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed BetBoom Team34c533.59$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.275554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Yandex61c508.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.517950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17039660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked BetBoom Team41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Yandex55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22531245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed BetBoom Team45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Team Yandex57c499.99$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.58844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Yandex60c485$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19412454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed BetBoom Team27c470.84$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12521751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed BetBoom Team46c449.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.533549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed BetBoom Team46c445.19$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed BetBoom Team22c437.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9db…3999backed Team Yandex65c418.88$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.614151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked BetBoom Team37c407.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9353844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Yandex74c389.5$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team38c380.91$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.011,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Yandex54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3724045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed BetBoom Team43c353.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.588251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Yandex60c330.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7564149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked BetBoom Team43c321.94$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.766753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed Team Yandex62c320.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.038229.3%24 W · 58 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team35c311.43$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.751,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Yandex65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6945046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Yandex64c304.69$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6954753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Yandex66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0326453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BetBoom Team8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Yandex53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14125147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed BetBoom Team47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14197142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed BetBoom Team37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6323050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Yandex66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.343658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Team Yandex59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1232955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed BetBoom Team43c278.56$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3111549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked BetBoom Team10c275$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6514744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.