TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof BetBoom Team, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,603 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BetBoom Team36c17,934$6,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,520.5413020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team35c13,126$4,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,544.6255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Yandex62c12,160$7,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.0633746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed BetBoom Team39c9,513$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.022450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Yandex66c9,219$6,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,126.3886949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex62c8,488$5,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.3654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Yandex62c6,971$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.016349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Team Yandex61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3402646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed BetBoom Team36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex61c3,854$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.6853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Yandex61c3,660$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.4532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed BetBoom Team40c2,492$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.88749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed BetBoom Team33c2,401$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team38c1,905$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.8988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BetBoom Team37c1,700$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Yandex65c1,589$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.091,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex65c1,439$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.8251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Team Yandex70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.5710743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex66c1,342$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.841,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked BetBoom Team40c1,336$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.3118362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Yandex60c1,300$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked BetBoom Team36c1,288$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.836633.3%22 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Yandex68c1,286$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.1146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex74c1,207$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.6866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed BetBoom Team40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48023650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed BetBoom Team41c1,123$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex63c1,052$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.641,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team34c1,034$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.391,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed Team Yandex60c1,009$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.482744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked BetBoom Team38c971.99$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3536851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e0f…60f7backed Team Yandex63c873.67$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BetBoom Team6c849.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.486132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex64c818.09$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.582,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Team Yandex62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.453438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Yandex62c806.13$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1318954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed BetBoom Team36c799.98$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.993215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Yandex58c799.97$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed BetBoom Team38c783.13$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3912638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Yandex65c780$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.823050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed BetBoom Team31c774.1$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed BetBoom Team40c751$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Yandex69c701.46$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8619552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BetBoom Team37c675.61$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8825444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Yandex64c546.47$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4736654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BetBoom Team36c509.21$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2216725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Yandex77c506$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3120156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Yandex60c503.93$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9372035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Team Yandex80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10012654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked BetBoom Team38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19017133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed BetBoom Team8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Yandex62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19030155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Team Yandex63c499.97$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.9997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked BetBoom Team43c466.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex65c409.61$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.571,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed Team Yandex62c403.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.235554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team34c400$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13760552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed BetBoom Team38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team38c390.47$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.262,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed BetBoom Team41c365.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BetBoom Team6c344.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3937811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Team Yandex61c328.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8734860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked Team Yandex61c327.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.691442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Yandex62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5826453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed BetBoom Team41c321.22$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8921751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf755…8e37backed Team Yandex66c320.2$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.267268.1%49 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Yandex64c314.06$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0633645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed BetBoom Team7c311.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.848726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Yandex64c304.69$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6954753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Yandex64c301.56$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5641655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Team Yandex65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10511943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Yandex65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Team Yandex63c285.71$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.712955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked BetBoom Team35c282.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked BetBoom Team39c272.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.79858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Yandex65c266.15$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1510949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Yandex62c264$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3264744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f72…7413backed BetBoom Team40c256.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed BetBoom Team35c245.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.588251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Team Yandex60c240$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.614744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Yandex63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.151550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BetBoom Team36c234.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.261,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked BetBoom Team35c231.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.596753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Yandex63c230$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.57560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa77…bf95backed Team Yandex64c229.05$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5125953.3%138 W · 121 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed BetBoom Team33c229.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.472334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Yandex57c217.37$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1280742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked BetBoom Team31c207.3$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.241,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team32c201.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.481,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Team Yandex60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8011960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed BetBoom Team35c187.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8311549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked BetBoom Team32c183.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.633964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed BetBoom Team31c178.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6913850%69 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BetBoom Team40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf586…e81bbacked BetBoom Team32c170.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.33per pick39cpaid-85.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9f28…1edebacked Team Yandex61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9310456.7%59 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Yandex61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9346451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Yandex62c161.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3232148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc186…ad81backed Team Yandex62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.293767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed BetBoom Team38c159.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7448352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked BetBoom Team34c154.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.512348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.