Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Corentin Moutet vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5882a5a6ea6bccc854ac6bfb409e24a26687834030a7cde13cbdb14295d70e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutetof Moutet, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Michelsen | 24c | 6,765$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.55 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moutet | 68c | 4,773$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Moutet | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Michelsen | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Moutet | 56c | 1,347$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.49 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Moutet | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Moutet | 48c | 929.59$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.59 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Michelsen | 56c | 925.49$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.63 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Michelsen | 25c | 664.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Michelsen | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Moutet | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Moutet | 52c | 595.51$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.08 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Moutet | 58c | 557.75$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.76 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Moutet | 52c | 413.72$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.58 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Michelsen | 53c | 376.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Michelsen | 47c | 312$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Michelsen | 13c | 290$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Moutet | 32c | 268.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Moutet | 47c | 253.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.49 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Moutet | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Michelsen | 36c | 244.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Moutet | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Moutet | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Michelsen | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Moutet | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Moutet | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Michelsen | 34c | 151.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Moutet | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michelsen | 58c | 142.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Michelsen | 44c | 141.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Michelsen | 60c | 137.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Moutet | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Michelsen | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Michelsen | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Moutet | 48c | 81.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Moutet | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Moutet | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Moutet | 52c | 61.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Moutet | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Moutet | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Moutet | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Moutet | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.