MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a74c0d77699f9ba24ecd8557204cbf7c4fd1f4566b95b55bd06bec50066319e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 20,666$9,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,423.08 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 10,207$5,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,650.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 7,131$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 55c | 5,045$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.24 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 46c | 4,783$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 3,480$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 2,595$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 2,349$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 2,268$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 1,820$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 1,795$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 54c | 1,793$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.9 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 1,683$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.94 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 1,269$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 999.97$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.98 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 539.62$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 498$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 491$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 486$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 54c | 456.13$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.82 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 44c | 397.12$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 54c | 370.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.34 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 341$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…da0bbacked Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 244.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 243.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 239$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 55c | 209.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 194.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 192.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 46c | 173.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 96.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 55c | 89.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Under | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 56.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 56c | 49.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 46c | 46.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 56c | 39.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 54c | 34.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 33.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 30.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under | 52c | 27.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 46c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 50c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 53c | 20.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 54c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Under | 62c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.