MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f69ec9704b8e29706a87e2a41396d8ae85645616754bff05484fb9c209992b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 12,678$7,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,479.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 11,698$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,025.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 7,693$4,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 5,938$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.39 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 5,818$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 1,816$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.88 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,468$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.89 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 656.74$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 595$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 480$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 466$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 441$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies | 80c | 305$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 269.19$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 232.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 221.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 201$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 200.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 153.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 134.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 112.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Colorado Rockies | 72c | 111.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 110.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 103.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 88.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 73.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 72.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 62.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 24c | 55.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 47.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 43.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.