World Politics · resolved market
Democrats 66 (D66) win 10% or more of votes in Netherlands election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7d40a55ae60c5dd65ed758dcb503074916132eba2f93a701d25ab999a7a370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 39c | 2,209$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.22 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 63c | 1,953$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.72 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 1,353$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.13 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,334$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…ab91backed Yes | 64c | 491.75$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…2972backed Yes | 60c | 397$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 26c | 372.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.57 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 329.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 59c | 254.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 62c | 241.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 18c | 208$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 203.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 24c | 152.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 126.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 17c | 99.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +272.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 67c | 84.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…d8efbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…a839backed Yes | 16c | 79.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed Yes | 67c | 73.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…b2e3backed No | 25c | 68.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes | 64c | 48.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…75e3backed No | 32c | 43.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 37c | 42.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 59c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcd…0282backed Yes | 80c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.