Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:1 against Taylor Fritz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8743241422d0e7c08399f6786bece98baa6efee7ae9c7b4a1a13b5f02c17e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 71c | 965.52$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.52 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 34c | 350$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 67c | 341.46$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 13c | 126.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7324…b7edbacked Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed No | 62c | 112.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked No | 68c | 112.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 70c | 92.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Yes | 30c | 89.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…4068backed Yes | 30c | 59.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 70c | 30.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 65c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:1 against Taylor Fritz?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Taylor Fritz?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Taylor Fritz?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win 3:1 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will any other outcome occur in Fritz vs Alcaraz?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.