Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Taylor Fritz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x579d51c92aee79d49f7ae5e5feaa31c71cb65fa65167d86a458bc5acf6e49a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 14c | 8,164$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.05 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 40c | 1,452$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Yes | 38c | 1,348$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.24 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…aaf4backed No | 62c | 1,031$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 60c | 884.81$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.92 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…20b0backed Yes | 45c | 778.82$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 48c | 720$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…5724backed Yes | 57c | 605.26$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 42c | 550$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 58c | 496.03$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked No | 66c | 446.58$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea14…edc5backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 50c | 321.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 59c | 251.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…fa2cbacked Yes | 40c | 249.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Yes | 42c | 167.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 61c | 167$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 49c | 165.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…644bbacked Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 64c | 156.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…2f05backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…d131backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Yes | 42c | 49.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…9a61backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…3ff7backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 61c | 47.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Yes | 38c | 45.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 51c | 41.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…eb76backed Yes | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed No | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…422ebacked No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 45c | 29.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed No | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…9ee7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Taylor Fritz?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:1 against Taylor Fritz?Yes won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Taylor Fritz?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win 3:1 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will any other outcome occur in Fritz vs Alcaraz?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.