TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Taylor Fritz?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf520…0637backed Yes14c8,164$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.0528043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Yes51c1,569$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80028443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Yes40c1,452$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.9712038.3%46 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Yes38c1,348$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.2411652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e2…aaf4backed No62c1,031$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No60c884.81$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.926136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…20b0backed Yes45c778.82$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes48c720$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.696035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4b…5724backed Yes57c605.26$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Yes42c550$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2293638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No58c496.03$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3314345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3210…5c4ebacked No66c446.58$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.842133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea14…edc5backed No62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed No50c321.15$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No59c251.37$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4442141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1578…fa2cbacked Yes40c249.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.61478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2562952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No50c192$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…05b4backed Yes42c167.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No61c167$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1395140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes49c165.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3422037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1421…644bbacked Yes44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No64c156.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9263942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8548043.3%208 W · 272 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No46c110$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.42227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017349.1%85 W · 88 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8099…2f05backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd483…756dbacked Yes50c92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Yes39c81.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9713245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0722…d131backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520431.4%64 W · 140 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512256.6%69 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed Yes42c49.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.596549.2%32 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff0…9a61backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ae…3ff7backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed No61c47.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.415957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c10…35dcbacked Yes38c45.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.112774.1%20 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No51c41.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ab…eb76backed Yes42c40.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b5…5414backed No62c39.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152030%6 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc615…9f26backed Yes41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155819%11 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860f…422ebacked No61c34.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.652157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Yes45c29.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.396331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed No53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes42c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043749%214 W · 223 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef9…3b47backed No58c23.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x130f…9ee7backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.