Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aaaaecc3b93e5c86bbc9a0fa1de5bb3ba55b96e94d2fa0bd97d70a4532dccef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team AION | 71c | 2,011$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.71 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team AION | 24c | 1,234$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 534 | 44.4%237 W · 297 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team AION | 33c | 978.65$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.77 | 479 | 53.9%258 W · 221 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Team AION | 12c | 757.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 474 | 57.4%272 W · 202 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed 4ikibamboni | 74c | 700$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team AION | 37c | 543.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed 4ikibamboni | 76c | 512.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed 4ikibamboni | 58c | 420$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team AION | 12c | 413.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Team AION | 17c | 315.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team AION | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…2a8ebacked 4ikibamboni | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed 4ikibamboni | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…6c35backed 4ikibamboni | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…423dbacked 4ikibamboni | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…6cb3backed 4ikibamboni | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Team AION | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 666 | 48.6%324 W · 342 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 4ikibamboni | 55c | 182.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…87f4backed 4ikibamboni | 30c | 169.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +13.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 164.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked 4ikibamboni | 78c | 162.62$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 131.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked 4ikibamboni | 79c | 130.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed 4ikibamboni | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked 4ikibamboni | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…226cbacked 4ikibamboni | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team AION | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Team AION | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 204 | 21.1%43 W · 161 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked 4ikibamboni | 47c | 102.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 19c | 94.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked 4ikibamboni | 38c | 87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked 4ikibamboni | 72c | 85.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…a408backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 81.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked 4ikibamboni | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cc42backed Team AION | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked 4ikibamboni | 42c | 69.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 285 | 47.4%135 W · 150 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked Team AION | 23c | 65.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 436 | 49.1%214 W · 222 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked 4ikibamboni | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked 4ikibamboni | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…3540backed 4ikibamboni | 22c | 58.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked 4ikibamboni | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 583 | 46.3%270 W · 313 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed 4ikibamboni | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Team AION | 41c | 49.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 46.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed 4ikibamboni | 32c | 45.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 545 | 48.4%264 W · 281 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed 4ikibamboni | 47c | 37.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed 4ikibamboni | 32c | 33.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked 4ikibamboni | 50c | 29.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked 4ikibamboni | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…3d66backed Team AION | 43c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed 4ikibamboni | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 417 | 39.6%165 W · 252 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed 4ikibamboni | 75c | 23.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed 4ikibamboni | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked 4ikibamboni | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)4ikibamboni won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.