TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Team AION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Team AION26c13,535$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.4347646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked 4ikibamboni70c6,796$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.4180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed 4ikibamboni72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Team AION29c3,549$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.294332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed Team AION34c2,441$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.275244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Team AION3c2,112$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed 4ikibamboni79c2,097$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.2416058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked 4ikibamboni72c2,067$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.7561456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed 4ikibamboni65c1,921$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.348057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Team AION32c1,687$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53319547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni63c1,500$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.9979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked 4ikibamboni47c1,492$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.56744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed 4ikibamboni65c1,413$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.6738855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked 4ikibamboni78c1,398$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4612764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 4ikibamboni76c1,281$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed 4ikibamboni71c1,069$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.111753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Team AION30c947.92$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0215639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…180abacked Team AION24c827.44$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team AION36c700.81$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.92,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked 4ikibamboni71c696.7$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4411758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Team AION26c688.26$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.233852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked 4ikibamboni51c621.96$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6932549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Team AION50c620$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9410653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed 4ikibamboni76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14417757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed 4ikibamboni52c599.93$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9751544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team AION23c586.09$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed 4ikibamboni71c569.44$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.225359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bb8…eb07backed Team AION28c524.7$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Team AION36c518.31$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.913145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed 4ikibamboni75c410.09$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.121158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team AION33c409.91$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.853844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Team AION29c407$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0310743.9%47 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed 4ikibamboni55c361.32$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.591,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Team AION28c358.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed 4ikibamboni77c350$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed 4ikibamboni65c347.49$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2848054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team AION31c340.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6435960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team AION26c331$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2664547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Team AION7c330.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.953323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed 4ikibamboni66c288.59$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7643067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team AION44c270$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7435737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team AION29c263.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.232,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed 4ikibamboni78c257.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Team AION42c235.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed 4ikibamboni58c218.05$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.581752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team AION25c211.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7866848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Team AION25c207$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Team AION17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3702…9b19backed Team AION31c195.23$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.524250%21 W · 21 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+24.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed 4ikibamboni78c192.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8538759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni63c186.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.531,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x926d…f416backed Team AION32c185.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.81837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Team AION24c179.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team AION17c177.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Team AION32c175.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7947548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Team AION24c170.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415940.7%24 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Team AION24c167.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5541632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Team AION34c157.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.438040%32 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team AION24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3622240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Team AION35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-38.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x46fa…97fcbacked Team AION26c145.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team AION25c144$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3634443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked 4ikibamboni78c140$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.832756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Team AION24c137.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334025%10 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team AION26c136$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6930844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team AION21c135$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team AION23c132.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5640534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed 4ikibamboni76c132.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0146049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8742660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e5…c8d1backed Team AION34c129.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.895451.9%28 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd65f…a4e4backed 4ikibamboni72c128.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Team AION25c111$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7514043.6%61 W · 79 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Team AION31c104.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.434041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Team AION51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe489…8804backed 4ikibamboni70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014349%70 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9c…5369backed Team AION23c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511450%57 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked 4ikibamboni70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309964.6%64 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team AION23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0862841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 4ikibamboni72c97.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9366545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Team AION43c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.724138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd2…87f4backed Team AION31c86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.668657%49 W · 37 L+13.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa5bd…226cbacked Team AION31c86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.666550.8%33 W · 32 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Team AION24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207445.9%34 W · 40 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team AION25c83.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7665647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Team AION17c80.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6472637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Team AION33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.450247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team AION31c79.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.591,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked 4ikibamboni75c75.6$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.64766%31 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team AION36c74.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8941455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Team AION35c72.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0615342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team AION25c69.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4412740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a3…5b70backed Team AION31c68.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Team AION23c61.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2756…e8c7backed 4ikibamboni76c61.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6420661.7%127 W · 79 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed 4ikibamboni73c60.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2612646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0243…b5a5backed Team AION27c59.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Team AION26c59.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360a…376fbacked Team AION28c58.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a49…4985backed 4ikibamboni62c57.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.