MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aafa8f7badd3a5580d64dc8aaf1096e35af6db8aa8dafe39df6b50f1064b4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 755.16$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 4c | 512.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 464$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 457.64$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 409$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 324.71$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 205.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 22c | 160.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 137.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 130.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 100.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 68.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 51.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 41.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 40.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.