MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf071498c690be946e789a52e5cc5486e50af310918727373da176ab809ded46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 49c | 74,423$36,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,955.86 | 509 | 53.8%274 W · 235 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 48,273$24,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,619.02 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 51c | 19,697$10,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,124.32 | 446 | 46.9%209 W · 237 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…b2aebacked Over | 51c | 16,332$8,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,329.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 49c | 4,407$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.55 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 4,215$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.65 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 363 | 43%156 W · 207 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 458 | 51.1%234 W · 224 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,517$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.29 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 1,511$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 15c | 1,420$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 1,303$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.6 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 1,260$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.36 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 1,099$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.5 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 688.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.29 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 400.44$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.77 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 325.41$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 72c | 320.69$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 714 | 44.4%317 W · 397 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 210.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 51c | 169$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 164.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 51c | 161.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 659 | 49.2%324 W · 335 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked Over | 12c | 131.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 52c | 117.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 51c | 113.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 47c | 109$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 100.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 48c | 77.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 2,064 | 39.2%810 W · 1,254 L | -29.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 41c | 62.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 62.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 58.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 49c | 54.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…df46backed Under | 50c | 51.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 34.4%207 W · 394 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 51c | 38.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 747 | 43.4%324 W · 423 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 36.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 57c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Under | 50c | 31.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 44c | 26.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 422 | 48.8%206 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 46c | 25.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 372 | 57.3%213 W · 159 L | +25.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 51c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 50c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.