MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3146ffcd9604ba4cf5be19d81aedd02b03daeb054b811eec89d242cfb8a6d1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 43c | 13,571$5,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,835.7 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 10,079$6,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,829.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 4c | 2,139$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 1,652$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.67 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 1,222$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 62c | 1,220$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 56c | 1,115$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.66 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 38c | 991.89$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 888$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 810$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 44c | 774.64$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 736$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 603.09$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 8c | 525.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 406.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.91 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 57c | 262$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 23c | 255.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 45c | 166.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 44c | 117.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 38c | 99.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 48.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 54c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.