MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d5c4958a80d192954d0a0b8aa411d2d55b638346246bc67df5a5c8012921aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 787.62$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.42 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 689$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 552.03$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 550$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 549$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 486.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 17c | 454$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 166.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 159.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 8c | 143.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 124.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Miami Marlins | 17c | 78.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 48.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 38.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 34.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 31.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 257 | 52.9%136 W · 121 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.