TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed No50c4,200$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.625451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff6…d9b1backed Yes53c1,473$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No49c1,128$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.1142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadba…b0afbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10840%0 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes2c939.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.235628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No61c866.1$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes37c457.41$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.865,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf79…92b6backed Yes49c400$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb9d…6804backed Yes49c400$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes49c400$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45b3…eed5backed Yes49c400$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf565…cb93backed Yes49c399.77$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.892425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8b7…4834backed Yes50c398.96$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.491910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-75.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes49c285.07$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.281711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c279.02$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c276.8$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.261,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f8…750bbacked Yes49c270.08$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.242317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x35cd…36a8backed Yes50c239.23$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.831513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c231.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.061,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d1…8769backed Yes50c227.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.121618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No46c212.53$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.358551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes50c205.54$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.441915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc3…b884backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a9…6747backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf821…f546backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8af…603bbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x113f…120ebacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c87…d952backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes45c198.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.171,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No53c196.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d6…8b53backed No48c178.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.215154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes53c173.27$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.255731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes38c169.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.489626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes52c162.65$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.994,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No48c157.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.437266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c151.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.141,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes46c142.41$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.512832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes68c141.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8517135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No53c139.66$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9419547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No57c135.6$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.861,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes46c134$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6411038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes64c130.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes57c127.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.625635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes42c122.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes54c122.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0311249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes48c122.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked No60c122.26$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6118327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9897…eb2abacked No53c119.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes52c119.73$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8761821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No57c117.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.259054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No51c111.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes46c108.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1256131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No57c108.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.181,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes32c104.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c101.66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.955,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7497…d74dbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5444448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c97.35$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes66c96.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.618643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes37c96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.523240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes51c95.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes56c85.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.82343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20b9…69e7backed Yes41c84.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes51c84.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c8…2be8backed Yes55c83.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c80.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7368…6e6dbacked No51c80.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.462330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes58c78.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6926738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No41c78.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.742,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes49c78.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.721,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes46c74.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes45c72.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes42c71.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x694b…dadbbacked Yes57c67.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes51c66.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.88551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes38c65.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes56c64.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e67…7bb5backed No62c62.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.931464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes41c60.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes57c59.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6118668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No55c59.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes48c59.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.444431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No63c59.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.856369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9266…4ae6backed Yes53c58.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes53c55.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7960236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes52c54.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…4324backed Yes50c52.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No46c52.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.123547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No33c51.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.721,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes39c51.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6e…7940backed Yes54c50.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.