Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5fbd3c8d9fd2c0f4f40e93705ab1a7d7086b133b56d5565f049bf1939bccf3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 3c | 885.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 74c | 510.52$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.01 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 494.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 424.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 424.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 9c | 416.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.4 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…69e7backed Yes | 26c | 386.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 22c | 385.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.13 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 381.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.18 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 297.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 280.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 264.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 251.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.99 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 242.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 226.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 217.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 12c | 200.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 197.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 14c | 193.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 11c | 191.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 10c | 190.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 14c | 188.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 17c | 184.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 21c | 184.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 176.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 169.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 11c | 151.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 7c | 147.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 16c | 145.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 8c | 140.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 8c | 131.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 80c | 130.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 128.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 10c | 115.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 15c | 109.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 96.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 53c | 93.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 25c | 92.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 91.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 14c | 90.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…7423backed No | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 82.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…7940backed Yes | 39c | 73.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 70.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 52c | 66.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 79c | 66.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 37c | 64.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 50c | 63.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed No | 80c | 62.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 76c | 62.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 57.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…0e95backed Yes | 21c | 56.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 55.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 47c | 54.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 79c | 44.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 35.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 79c | 12.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.