Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffbd2ac527041b104f5e100d5513324e7db73f5480d1485a7d8b5d1c7a438b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 4c | 646.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 36c | 599.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 35c | 424.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 415.83$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.46 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 337.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 237.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 219.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 15c | 213.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 27c | 193.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 21c | 188.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 177.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 175.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…69e7backed Yes | 13c | 165.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 155.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 30c | 146.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 140.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 134.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 44c | 128.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 124.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 122.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 109.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 12c | 107.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 106.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 100.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 38c | 100.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf260…1fc1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 98.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 41c | 96.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 37c | 96.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 64c | 96.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 29c | 82.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 78.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…b2cebacked Yes | 27c | 76.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 32c | 73.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 64c | 72.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 15c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 24c | 70.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 68c | 66.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 28c | 66.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 70c | 60.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 58.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 57.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 57.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 56.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 55.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 33c | 55.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 40c | 54.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 49.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…dad7backed Yes | 35c | 49.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…7940backed Yes | 42c | 46.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 45.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 44.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 44.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 34c | 42.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 40.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…c957backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 39.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 75c | 37.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed No | 57c | 36.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 70c | 35.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 71c | 35.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 64c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes | 40c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 38c | 32.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…06b0backed Yes | 42c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 59c | 31.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…4ae6backed Yes | 34c | 31.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 62c | 30.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked No | 63c | 30.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 28.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 41c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 25.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…9a6bbacked No | 63c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.