Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aec24c17e0c1f552d27f4a642d64996a276a808b1b406a19f302a4a9ed82499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Salford City FCof Manchester City FC, Salford City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC | 42c | 5,521$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.62 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Salford City FC | 55c | 2,273$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.72 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Salford City FC | 53c | 2,228$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.72 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Salford City FC | 55c | 2,098$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.01 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Manchester City FC | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Salford City FC | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.29 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 1,810$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Salford City FC | 53c | 1,535$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.7 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 1,294$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Salford City FC | 50c | 1,274$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Salford City FC | 56c | 1,137$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.13 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Salford City FC | 52c | 1,071$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.66 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 1,001$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc274…6d59backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 921.42$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.65 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 904.65$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Salford City FC | 53c | 712.26$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 370 | 54.9%203 W · 167 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 601.26$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Salford City FC | 49c | 594.12$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 424$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 400.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Manchester City FC | 54c | 370$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Manchester City FC | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 207.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Manchester City FC | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Manchester City FC | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Manchester City FC | 43c | 187$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 185.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 159 | 55.3%88 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manchester City FC | 47c | 185.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 742 | 56.9%422 W · 320 L | +46.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Manchester City FC | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Salford City FC | 54c | 163.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked Manchester City FC | 47c | 161.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Salford City FC | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 350 | 56.9%199 W · 151 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Salford City FC | 46c | 144.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…9a6fbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Salford City FC | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Manchester City FC | 54c | 101.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Salford City FC | 50c | 100.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | +21.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Manchester City FC | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 151 | 37.7%57 W · 94 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Salford City FC | 68c | 88.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Manchester City FC | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 317 | 46.1%146 W · 171 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 69.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Salford City FC | 48c | 64.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Salford City FC | 48c | 64.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Salford City FC | 50c | 62.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Salford City FC | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 331 | 56.8%188 W · 143 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Manchester City FC | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Salford City FC | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Manchester City FC | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 326 | 56.7%185 W · 141 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Salford City FC | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 315 | 57.8%182 W · 133 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…217cbacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Salford City FC | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Salford City FC | 51c | 49.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 277 | 58.8%163 W · 114 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…18b0backed Manchester City FC | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Salford City FC | 58c | 46.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Salford City FC | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Manchester City FC | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Manchester City FC | 53c | 33.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 217 | 47.9%104 W · 113 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Manchester City FC | 55c | 30.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Salford City FC | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 255 | 60%153 W · 102 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Manchester City FC | 56c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Salford City FC | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 262 | 59.5%156 W · 106 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Salford City FC | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 313 | 59.4%186 W · 127 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b0…3b4ebacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Manchester City FC | 48c | 22.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Salford City FC | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 255 | 58.8%150 W · 105 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-3.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.