Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11cd8dd7c597ab89bdc5408a0b9ca3e60e7ca446b5c6694e90e1712a1b74d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 8,657$4,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,703.04 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.24 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 45c | 2,800$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.96 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 48c | 2,499$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,110$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.68 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,624$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.14 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…d73fbacked Over | 53c | 1,270$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Over | 53c | 947.11$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 55c | 905.36$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Under | 47c | 460.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Over | 56c | 406.61$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.28 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 53c | 400$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 73c | 398.82$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.79 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 47c | 384.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 317.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 51c | 239.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 48c | 232.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 50c | 199.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 199.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under | 47c | 192$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…751abacked Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 51c | 124.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…b7bfbacked Over | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…9a6fbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 50c | 53.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…f6d8backed Under | 72c | 50.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…3dd1backed Under | 47c | 45.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…9ac1backed Over | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9e93backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…de1cbacked Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…7ce9backed Over | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 35.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 50c | 32.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 49c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 46c | 25.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…4be4backed Under | 60c | 24.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed Under | 47c | 24.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 54c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 51c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…9603backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 53c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-3.5)Salford City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.