NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af2ef2d64b580a1f8fb57cdc859848542d8329ce5528e61f9463f0b8b98beb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Steelers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc880…a622backed Browns | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Browns | 45c | 153$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Browns | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Steelers | 54c | 77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Browns | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Browns | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Steelers | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Steelers | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Steelers | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Steelers | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Steelers | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Steelers | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Steelers | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Steelers | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Steelers | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Steelers | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Steelers | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Steelers | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-1.5)Browns won
- First Touchdown: Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr. won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Browns won
- Steelers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 16.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 28.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 33.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.