NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7894d02216c829e8027fff1b0143f29de766cd6232dfc5edb074261d535f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Steelers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Steelers | 45c | 12,769$5,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,745.92 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Browns | 55c | 10,506$5,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,738.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Steelers | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Steelers | 44c | 6,205$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.2 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Browns | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Browns | 55c | 4,134$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Browns | 55c | 2,250$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.84 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Steelers | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Browns | 54c | 1,600$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.79 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Steelers | 46c | 1,468$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Steelers | 45c | 1,061$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked Steelers | 46c | 763.17$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Browns | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 55c | 582.83$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Browns | 55c | 480$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Browns | 55c | 380.79$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Browns | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Browns | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Browns | 54c | 293.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.82 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Browns | 55c | 291$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Steelers | 35c | 226.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…fba4backed Browns | 68c | 210.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Browns | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Browns | 56c | 165$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Steelers | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…e775backed Browns | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Steelers | 47c | 137.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Steelers | 41c | 131$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Steelers | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Steelers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Browns | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Browns | 56c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Steelers | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Browns | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…1ba3backed Browns | 55c | 74.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Steelers | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Browns | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Browns | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Browns | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Steelers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Browns | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Steelers | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Browns | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Steelers | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Steelers | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Browns | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Steelers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…7a58backed Steelers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Steelers | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Browns | 52c | 30.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Browns | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Steelers | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Browns | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Browns | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Browns | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Steelers | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Steelers | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Browns | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Browns | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Steelers | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…d59dbacked Browns | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-1.5)Browns won
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Browns won
- First Touchdown: Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr. won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Browns won
- Steelers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 16.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 28.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 33.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.