NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56ea27cd8d55e78122c873580a6206ab367eb41f2acbef400251b99583ff2beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 52c | 38,927$20,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,507.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 21,128$10,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,050.42 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 20,751$9,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,966.86 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 13,000$6,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,470 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Under | 52c | 12,480$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,990.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 8,111$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.15 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,386$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.35 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 6,773$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.14 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 6,445$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.27 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 50c | 6,087$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 5,798$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.08 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 5,377$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.52 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 3,817$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.51 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 49c | 2,000$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Under | 52c | 1,785$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.62 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 1,105$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.95 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Over | 50c | 620.08$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 50c | 606$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 47c | 525.24$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 50c | 481.94$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 211.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 182$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Over | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 47c | 50.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Under | 51c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 48c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 20.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 20.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-1.5)Browns won
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Browns won
- First Touchdown: Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr. won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Browns won
- Steelers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 16.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 28.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 33.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.