NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 33.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c827ace47a26377862e8a4962d59b110b766eb72e5c6a91791ab343b896f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 7,374$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.04 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 57c | 6,140$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 55c | 4,386$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.13 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Over | 56c | 4,300$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…3fd2backed Under | 44c | 4,300$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 2,034$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,312$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.79 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 1,144$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.72 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,020$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 778$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0cc5backed Over | 56c | 754.93$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Over | 57c | 663.37$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 56c | 599.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 401$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 302.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.27 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 57c | 260.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 244.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 55c | 226.25$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 45c | 137.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 129.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Under | 60c | 123.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 40c | 103.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…77dfbacked Under | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 43c | 94.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Over | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 33.5this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-1.5)Browns won
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Browns won
- First Touchdown: Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr. won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Browns won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Browns won
- Steelers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBrowns won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 16.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 28.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.