MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba4a15a4b9bce8fc2bbfe2f6518f58129d88dcc34891f4335d96773c87c706d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 5,317$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 3,248$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 2,323$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 1,750$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 1,525$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 518.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.26 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 494.37$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 482.01$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 445.13$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 426.82$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 389.83$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 366.32$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 292.37$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 222$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 143.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 126$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 115.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Los Angeles Angels | 15c | 114.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 79.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 74.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 74.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 68.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 66.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 65.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 49.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 44.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 42.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 32c | 33.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 33.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.