Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1baa6068d63eef2134bd987d6f3a6ed34c42873f39b8cb564066d0153d5d1a54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 1,909$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.01 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 32c | 1,121$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.55 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 45c | 697.6$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 527.28$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.92 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 508.42$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.78 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 507.6$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 74c | 400.25$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 62c | 348.6$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.69 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 73c | 341.76$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 51c | 296.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 80c | 168$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 60c | 165.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 153.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 118.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 63c | 112.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 111.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 104.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…94b3backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 99.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 56c | 80.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 71.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 67.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 62c | 64.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 22c | 49.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Under | 68c | 43.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 35c | 38.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…7d58backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…c6f0backed Over | 57c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 21.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…d972backed Over | 64c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 76c | 15.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.