Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bad48492d2c3cf9bbf8e6978b727128535c4015f86d3071c7ae80a565d5040b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 715.78$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.42 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 37c | 490.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.97 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 488.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 37c | 415.47$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 327.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 64c | 259.85$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 253.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 16c | 246.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 181.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 180.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 177$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 162.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 13c | 143.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 130.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 16c | 126.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 118.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 116.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 113.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 104.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 72.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 68.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 15c | 66.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 65.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 17c | 64.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 59.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 49.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…bab3backed Yes | 47c | 48.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 34.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 27.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 22.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 20.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 18.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 79c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.