Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49305964e436aff63e30d77dcc9576710f56b66ac5f8b4ba8f9938a56cbb39b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 779.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 57c | 505$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.26 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 419.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 62c | 347.13$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.63 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 344.3$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 293.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 267.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 184.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 155.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 46c | 154.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 143.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 142$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 139.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 138.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 132$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 128.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 118.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 116.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 110.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 101.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 86.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 64.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 62.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 29c | 58.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 51.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 55c | 51.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 59c | 50.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 46.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 44.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 43.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 41.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 39.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 39.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 35.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 31.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 49c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 63c | 28.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 23.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 59c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.