NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb03948dba2ec142bcf9419f3d2434f8a09d1d06aabb51bd7b4d606f2a39fb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Hawks | 50c | 80,000$40,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,800 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Pacers | 50c | 60,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 50c | 56,307$27,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,955.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 50c | 19,344$9,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,751.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Pacers | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Hawks | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,649.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Hawks | 49c | 13,167$6,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,715.17 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Hawks | 50c | 11,665$5,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,818.45 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Pacers | 50c | 11,586$5,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,793.08 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…ce5ebacked Pacers | 51c | 6,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Hawks | 50c | 4,421$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.03 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Hawks | 50c | 4,387$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.22 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Pacers | 51c | 4,283$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.48 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hawks | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Pacers | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Hawks | 49c | 3,000$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.97 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 49c | 2,659$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.28 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Pacers | 50c | 1,890$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.78 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,819$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks | 49c | 1,518$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.07 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…9482backed Pacers | 50c | 1,247$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb54…ccf3backed Pacers | 50c | 1,073$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hawks | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.02 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hawks | 49c | 919.24$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.81 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Pacers | 51c | 700$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.44 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks | 50c | 688.28$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.14 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…21e9backed Hawks | 50c | 634$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…e9afbacked Hawks | 50c | 624$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…f732backed Hawks | 50c | 623$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…4c45backed Hawks | 50c | 612.51$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pacers | 46c | 554$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f063backed Pacers | 50c | 534$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Hawks | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Pacers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…26c7backed Hawks | 50c | 312$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 48c | 311.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…6287backed Pacers | 50c | 297$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Hawks | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks | 49c | 243.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…19c2backed Hawks | 50c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Pacers | 52c | 117.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Pacers | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Pacers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Hawks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Pacers | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…59bcbacked Pacers | 50c | 63.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…7ae3backed Hawks | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…96e1backed Pacers | 50c | 60.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5384backed Hawks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Pacers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Pacers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Hawks | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pacers | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Pacers | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…4455backed Pacers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…3dedbacked Pacers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Pacers | 52c | 26.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Hawks | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hawks | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)this page
- Hawks vs. PacersHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.