TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5137…1556backed Pacers45c3,031$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.332,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks55c2,828$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers46c2,062$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.562,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers47c1,682$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks54c1,099$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.5441848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Hawks54c1,083$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.338347%39 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers46c990.52$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.866,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers46c535.33$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.251,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Hawks55c522.54$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8817044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Hawks54c218$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2885347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks53c153$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9176249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Hawks55c118.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1358347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks54c89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2680148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers47c84.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6971052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Pacers46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237243.1%31 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf57…053bbacked Hawks54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9f…c1a4backed Hawks55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Pacers46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1252240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hawks50c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.547144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.