NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4066b4bc2c2a324b1227b8f1f63463fd021f821fc489d5362373fd94a9f5c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 45c | 3,031$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 55c | 2,828$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 46c | 2,062$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 47c | 1,682$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks | 54c | 1,099$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.54 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Hawks | 54c | 1,083$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.33 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 46c | 990.52$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 46c | 535.33$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Hawks | 55c | 522.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.88 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Hawks | 54c | 218$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks | 53c | 153$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hawks | 55c | 118.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers | 47c | 84.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Pacers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Hawks | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Hawks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Pacers | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Hawks | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)this page
- Hawks vs. PacersHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.