Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd3257469ea915469e7088d72d6c1496a8a9d41244cdd21dcacb32b640f5071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $661,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $661,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $661,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 53c | 588,936$309,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279,173.13 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 48c | 250,000$120,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119,999.99 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 47c | 200,000$94,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,000 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 27,153$13,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,001.77 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…058bbacked Over | 52c | 24,000$12,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,520 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 16,682$7,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,840.59 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 11,591$5,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,545.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 49c | 5,761$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.05 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 2,125$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.26 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.29 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 47c | 360.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 48c | 318.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Under | 48c | 212.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 49c | 191.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 49c | 138.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 14c | 91.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Under | 48c | 67.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Under | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…bf53backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Under | 50c | 37.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Under | 48c | 37.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Under | 51c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked Under | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 148.5this page
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 146.5Over won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-4.5)New Mexico Lobos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.