Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4cd73429c5eb8d7d4a49fb0df37d14df53469ea3b8805806daf034c4ed3074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego State Aztecsof New Mexico Lobos, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked New Mexico Lobos | 26c | 1,516$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego State Aztecs | 73c | 983.05$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 77c | 982.05$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico Lobos | 34c | 891.3$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.64 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…05adbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 66c | 333.73$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego State Aztecs | 67c | 324.22$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed New Mexico Lobos | 13c | 310.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked New Mexico Lobos | 33c | 301.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 64c | 264.64$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed New Mexico Lobos | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 147 | 8.8%13 W · 134 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed New Mexico Lobos | 32c | 227.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico Lobos | 28c | 216.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed San Diego State Aztecs | 66c | 203$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked New Mexico Lobos | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 160 | 8.1%13 W · 147 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico Lobos | 26c | 159.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed San Diego State Aztecs | 63c | 159.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed New Mexico Lobos | 32c | 147.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 67c | 142.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed San Diego State Aztecs | 72c | 137.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed San Diego State Aztecs | 76c | 118.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 190 | 57.4%109 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed New Mexico Lobos | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed New Mexico Lobos | 39c | 103.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed San Diego State Aztecs | 68c | 100.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico Lobos | 34c | 97.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked New Mexico Lobos | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed New Mexico Lobos | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs | 63c | 78.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 64c | 65.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed New Mexico Lobos | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed New Mexico Lobos | 26c | 49.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked New Mexico Lobos | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked New Mexico Lobos | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Diego State Aztecs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed New Mexico Lobos | 33c | 35.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed San Diego State Aztecs | 59c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed San Diego State Aztecs | 77c | 33.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…604cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked New Mexico Lobos | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed San Diego State Aztecs | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265a…a436backed San Diego State Aztecs | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…0b70backed San Diego State Aztecs | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecsthis page
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 146.5Over won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 147.5Over won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-4.5)New Mexico Lobos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.