MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd36d8bf3a74b075a3bfc73d94d141c544bdcd0fa552ee1effcb9eacfe8a5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 2,143$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.52 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 2,087$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.66 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 46c | 2,082$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.02 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 1,008$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 666.6$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 62c | 430.77$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 28c | 428.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.85 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 59c | 376.27$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 354.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 41c | 345$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 323.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 58c | 254$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 60c | 250.59$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 33c | 219.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 208$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 184.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Over | 49c | 146.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 42c | 146.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 63c | 100.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 63c | 99.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 63c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 63c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 42c | 49.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 35.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 56c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 39c | 26.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0035backed Over | 58c | 25.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.