MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f78f825df12a4155915b17d23aa5bc5ff58d2fca2318b656a9ea21c6cef2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Kansas City Royals | 2c | 986.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 886$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Kansas City Royals | 4c | 731.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 7cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 66c | 632.18$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 76c | 379.84$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 311.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Athletics | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 134.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 57c | 115.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 105.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 89.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Athletics | 68c | 86.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Athletics | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Athletics | 66c | 47.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Athletics | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 78c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Athletics | 78c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.