MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0959282c5250cac5c9c9bbb1b3e18a5110e9e12c48bb38b76acccbd29b4d8fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 55c | 21,270$11,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,713.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 20,360$9,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,094.93 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 54c | 8,800$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 7,087$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.18 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 6,183$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,524.26 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 55c | 2,200$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 1,925$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.4 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Athletics | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 1,173$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.26 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 69c | 892.71$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.34 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…eeb0backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 871.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Athletics | 54c | 849.03$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.48 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 13c | 595.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Athletics | 54c | 585$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics | 57c | 549.43$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 404.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 70c | 378.1$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 368$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 328.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 69c | 314.65$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 56c | 300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 61c | 225.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics | 56c | 138$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Athletics | 58c | 98.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Athletics | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 64.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Athletics | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Athletics | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Athletics | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 43.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Athletics | 54c | 43.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Athletics | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Athletics | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 38.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 32.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Athletics | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Athletics | 65c | 23.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Athletics | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 77c | 13.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.