MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44184b2fedbebe08f42f83f54aff3e0403025bfec714dbf9f9a3ebc18ae8964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 52c | 21,843$11,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,484.64 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 48c | 20,800$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,984 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.96 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 47c | 9,303$4,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,372.39 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 7,615$3,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 6,693$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,673.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 4,227$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.36 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.99 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 610.72$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 68c | 509.94$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 490$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 310$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 304.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 44c | 265$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 243.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 49c | 203.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 149.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 63c | 130.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 122.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 51c | 118.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 118.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 73c | 117$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 51c | 105.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 47c | 88.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 38c | 69.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 43c | 61.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 49c | 58.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…9c18backed Over | 52c | 57.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 29c | 57.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 42c | 51.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 49.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 60c | 49.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 51c | 43.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 43.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 47c | 37.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…5da8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 28.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.