TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$504,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$507,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $504,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d1a…0df6backed Kansas City Royals62c137,561$85,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,273.115451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab3…64afbacked Athletics38c105,264$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,000.323145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Athletics37c66,742$24,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,694.5946949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Kansas City Royals62c37,387$23,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,207.0492054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals56c20,755$11,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,087.3510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Athletics38c16,458$6,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,253.8785645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Kansas City Royals31c15,000$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,349.9948952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics71c13,646$9,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,654.662,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Athletics50c11,889$5,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,984.61,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals53c11,748$6,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,569.048,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics38c11,595$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,408.194,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Kansas City Royals63c11,209$7,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,171.5526054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe963…6753backed Athletics41c10,849$4,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,448.096341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics60c10,134$6,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,073.924,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Kansas City Royals59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10011952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8853…c058backed Athletics37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7002552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics41c9,304$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.35,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Athletics38c8,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0401758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Kansas City Royals63c7,883$4,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.5460043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Athletics37c5,170$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.0445445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Kansas City Royals61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9505048%24 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals21c4,324$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.28,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Athletics69c3,907$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.9725447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Kansas City Royals71c3,134$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.8843554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0385…acafbacked Kansas City Royals63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1103548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals63c2,425$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.631,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf1…0db6backed Kansas City Royals60c2,391$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.41952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Kansas City Royals57c2,272$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.3561947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics59c2,165$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.534,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Athletics1c2,054$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.585852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Athletics44c2,050$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90219534.4%67 W · 128 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics40c2,048$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.22,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189c…c9aebacked Athletics3c2,042$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.575255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Athletics41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Athletics1c1,675$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Kansas City Royals63c1,600$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59264452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Kansas City Royals59c1,496$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.3336048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Athletics39c1,486$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.7766050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Athletics38c1,421$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7916845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Athletics60c1,314$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.1712759.1%75 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Athletics1c1,222$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112244.3%54 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Kansas City Royals61c1,150$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.527351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Athletics74c1,020$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.811548.7%56 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…e73fbacked Athletics70c1,004$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Kansas City Royals29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71014050.7%71 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics60c975.24$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals64c960.74$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.244,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kansas City Royals11c909.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.0994034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Kansas City Royals33c814.14$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.975655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kansas City Royals63c807.73$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.111,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals17c802.94$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.972,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked Kansas City Royals63c775.87$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.074362.8%27 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Athletics55c701.99$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7117548%84 W · 91 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb489…251cbacked Athletics60c666.67$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kansas City Royals54c617.74$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.7495045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Athletics42c598.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.581,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Athletics54c595$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6995252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Kansas City Royals61c588$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3228753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x734e…edbdbacked Athletics37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Athletics40c539.78$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9358352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals53c512$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.075,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Kansas City Royals61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19536932.8%121 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Kansas City Royals29c495.36$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.6124252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Kansas City Royals63c489$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9355653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Athletics41c476.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4712245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Athletics57c462.65$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3517152.6%90 W · 81 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Kansas City Royals41c457.14$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9360348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics78c438.1$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.168,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e55…a332backed Athletics39c420$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.87050%35 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Athletics48c415.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2548660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals63c411.1$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.113,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9303…cc05backed Kansas City Royals41c402.16$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.371361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Kansas City Royals61c392$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8827952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Athletics76c387$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.121,09979.7%876 W · 223 L+33.4wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals60c385.45$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.181,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals60c379.05$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6286548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Kansas City Royals56c377.37$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1185148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Kansas City Royals65c362.53$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5310953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals62c351.44$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.496,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Kansas City Royals63c347$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3944953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350f…7224backed Kansas City Royals9c334.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.6413858.7%81 W · 57 L-13.6wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-13.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Kansas City Royals45c324.43$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8934952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics39c315.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.831,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Athletics37c309.75$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.611947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Kansas City Royals63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Athletics33c286$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.527445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics41c276$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7854642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Kansas City Royals26c273.63$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3812029.2%35 W · 85 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals10c270.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.421,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals45c266.51$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.764,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Athletics55c256.2$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.375,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed Athletics38c255$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.96043.3%26 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Athletics54c252.42$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7897944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ab…0d2dbacked Kansas City Royals60c246.67$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6711255.4%62 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Athletics41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004035%14 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Athletics54c238.35$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.161,14043%490 W · 650 L-37.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…80a7backed Athletics57c235.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.325666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6865…6033backed Athletics40c223.6$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.443259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Athletics60c216.49$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.761,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Athletics60c214.32$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4547358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.