Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd5fab3d5df026a7bf8455a966e6229da4db468dfe9367ce5133096d114f598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 24c | 3,792$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 1,334$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 13c | 942.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 517.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 438.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 5c | 399.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 16c | 386.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 366.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 333.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 331$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 272.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 272$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 33c | 212.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 24c | 164.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 143.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 135.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 14c | 99.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 95.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 82.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86f…4bf3backed No | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 48.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 38.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 33.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.