Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e24b71d888d3f453271ba9cfe84cf0848c8839a1456a2e703df721632b5dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 71c | 1,165$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 18c | 1,127$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 51c | 725.24$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.92 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 426.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 344.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.76 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 67c | 295.16$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 262.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 69c | 242$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 28c | 205.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 49c | 204.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 67c | 170.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 67c | 168.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 156.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 140.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 58c | 139.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 100.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 38c | 95.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 90.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 89.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 86.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 82.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 81.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 78.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 51c | 78.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 20c | 75.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 68.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 28c | 65.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 69c | 57.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 57c | 48.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 46.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 41c | 43.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 33.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 61c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 45c | 29.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 24.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 59c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 67c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…e60abacked Yes | 65c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 56c | 18.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…1a9fbacked Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.