Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c358fc6bba200d8b1ad36d85f51a1096a9c4d538f4aa77599e895d067d55b69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-Pipsqueak+4of Team Lynx, ex-Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf93…0d84backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…f510backed Team Lynx | 44c | 926.93$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 838.1$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.77 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…0e1cbacked Team Lynx | 32c | 739.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Lynx | 44c | 375$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Lynx | 18c | 340.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…6be1backed Team Lynx | 47c | 329.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team Lynx | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx | 42c | 250.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 237.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 202.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx | 15c | 186.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 178.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 178.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 144.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 30c | 132.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 127.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Team Lynx | 44c | 101.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 100.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…7603backed Team Lynx | 46c | 88.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…7ccfbacked Team Lynx | 31c | 79.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 68c | 74.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team Lynx | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Lynx | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Team Lynx | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Lynx | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 44.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 32.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Team Lynx | 41c | 28.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…5a5cbacked ex-Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsex-Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerex-Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.