Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c67d514e71d9885d75b9bbc2c6a935f529f91ffc054edb6d27a4234e14146a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 6c | 3,362$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 2,558$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.35 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 7c | 2,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 400.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 7c | 397.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 16c | 390$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…63f9backed Yes | 25c | 263.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 247.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 30c | 173.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 162.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 70c | 149$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 132.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 13c | 128.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 98.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 70.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1b8fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 70c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 70c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 30c | 34.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.