Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56851dc7fec2953545be50b2af48e53b1573cea560b3d1336852ec91dd98849c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 8,810$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,553.22 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 8,130$6,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,045.6 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 3,881$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.82 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 3,200$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 1,100$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.24 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 901.61$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.27 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 56c | 707.19$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.27 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 565.91$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.77 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 491.57$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.06 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Yes | 37c | 486.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…1179backed No | 74c | 466.44$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 55c | 464.63$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 71c | 422.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.19 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 26c | 384.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 329$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 70c | 234.59$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 79c | 205.44$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 80c | 169$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 30c | 166.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…09c7backed Yes | 76c | 159.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 153.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 146.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 146.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 31c | 127.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 75c | 125.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 34c | 116.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 74c | 108.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 21c | 105.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 48c | 101.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 90.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 26c | 86.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 75.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 74c | 61.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 45c | 58.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a3fbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 47c | 47.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…c07abacked Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 70c | 39.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 60c | 35.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…bc1fbacked Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…e334backed Yes | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…de9bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.