Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8a6a8debe6bde799c8e8531a59e90d0b8d7bafcd65d3363a2ad0572756d41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 9c | 2,916$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 1,796$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 13c | 945.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 14c | 758.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 13c | 442.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked No | 14c | 390.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 349.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 72c | 330.63$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 289.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 21c | 239.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 182.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 177.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 15c | 163.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 162.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 21c | 121.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…780abacked Yes | 63c | 91.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 72.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 67.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 50c | 61.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 57.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…30e6backed No | 53c | 53.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…c3e6backed Yes | 76c | 52.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 80c | 50.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 40.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 37.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 36.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 74c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.