Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ceacccb705f37bed6a6c1ff58e23b2758938235529e72361a5981a67a714df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 761.65$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 497.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 393.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 45c | 343.21$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 323.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 288.52$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 55c | 273.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 243.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 237.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 61c | 231.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 227.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 172.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 56c | 168.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 124.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 110.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 36c | 105.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 84.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 68c | 71.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 52.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 39.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 36.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 29.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 27.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 62c | 26.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 73c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.