Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a24b71555d03c1806cffaf42340df7b4e41644adcc02143626127c28a603a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 71c | 1,765$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 28c | 862.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.63 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 560.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 66c | 506.36$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 72c | 490$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 395.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 31c | 188.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 176.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 146.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 141$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 127.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 114.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 90.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 88.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 24c | 82.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 67.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 61.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 19c | 60.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 39.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 74c | 35.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.