Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc472428290ef8575aaa4f1e083af3092f956bfe723ce6d321b9a33284e23871b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,052$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 74c | 1,293$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 992$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 522$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…2094backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 366.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 70c | 273.96$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 203.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 199.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 198.68$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 149.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 26c | 134.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…f35dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 128.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 127.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 101.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 97.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 81.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 76.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 54.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.